A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
